Corn Price Could See Further 25% Downside

corn price

Michael Phelps is a good icon for Corn Flakes and an even better representation of what is going on in US these days – we are swimming in corn!  It will only get worse once harvest comes.  What does that mean for the corn price that has already collapsed over $1.00/bu since mid-June

Using historical analysis, 2016 corn futures prices as of 8/19 still remain pricey despite huge decline over July/August.  Assuming the USDA August WASDE ending stock levels, the stock/trend use would be burdensomely high, suggesting further pressure on prices.  For the full story and the analysis approach, read on…

Yet Another Reason to Pay Attention to Value Stock Models

2016 began with a sharp spike in volatility with investors concerned the bull cycle could be over.  Now is more than ever a great time to consider value stocks to remove risk in your stock portfolios.  I have been cautious for over a year now and have a 12-month period to show results versus my two benchmarks, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL).  Since last March, the Value Portfolio has outperformed VTI by 15.4% and NOBL by 9.5%.  Click here to see the March 2016 picks for value stocks in the Value Portfolio.

Value Stocks

the Value Portfolio performance

Measuring Performance of Dividend Champions Selections

It’s been six months and it is time to check in on the performance of the Value Portfolio. Heck, with all of the market volatility in the last two weeks, perhaps it makes sense to evaluate the fundamentals and re-balance the portfolio.  How has it stacked up versus the benchmark?  What dividend stocks should you consider going forward? For the full story, see it at Seeking Alpha, here.

For a more visual evaluation of the more selective S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats list, see the related article here.

Ranking the Dividend Champions

The Dividend Champions, created and maintained by David Fish is a list of dividend stocks that meet the same difficult criteria as the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats -25+ years of consecutive dividend payments- but includes stocks outside of the S&P 500.  In all, there are currently 105 dividend stocks on the list.  I apply a fundamental value ranking method using my econometric model fitted using the dividend aristocrats from 1992-2008.  For the full article, click here.

Revisiting the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats fundamental model

Due to the interest in my latest article on the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (Finding Value in the Dividends Aristocrats List) and the discussion about backtesting, I thought I would share the empirical model I developed a few years back for forecasting total returns for The Value Portfolio (the 5 most undervalued stocks in the index).  To outline the importance of value, I also created a portfolio of the 5 most expensive – The Underperform Portfolio.  The results from 12 quarterly periods compared to the benchmark Dividend Aristocrats index outside of the model fitting period are shown in the chart.  The full model is provided in xls linked below.

Model Portfolio


Are there any Value Stocks in the U.S. Apparel Store Industry?

The Apparel Store industry saw a glut of competition, excess store inventories, heavy discounting, and reduced mall traffic resulting in dismal earnings, top executive position vacancies, and huge hits in market cap levels.  Many Apparel companies have been able to rebound from their low prices in 2014, offering returns above the S&P 500 over the past 52 weeks.  Is it too late to consider any of these companies value stocks?  To answer this question, I ran some objective analysis. To see the full report, click here.

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