Monthly Archives: February 2015

Revisiting the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats fundamental model

Due to the interest in my latest article on the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (Finding Value in the Dividends Aristocrats List) and the discussion about backtesting, I thought I would share the empirical model I developed a few years back for forecasting total returns for The Value Portfolio (the 5 most undervalued stocks in the index).  To outline the importance of value, I also created a portfolio of the 5 most expensive – The Underperform Portfolio.  The results from 12 quarterly periods compared to the benchmark Dividend Aristocrats index outside of the model fitting period are shown in the chart.  The full model is provided in xls linked below.

Model Portfolio


Are there any Value Stocks in the U.S. Apparel Store Industry?

The Apparel Store industry saw a glut of competition, excess store inventories, heavy discounting, and reduced mall traffic resulting in dismal earnings, top executive position vacancies, and huge hits in market cap levels.  Many Apparel companies have been able to rebound from their low prices in 2014, offering returns above the S&P 500 over the past 52 weeks.  Is it too late to consider any of these companies value stocks?  To answer this question, I ran some objective analysis. To see the full report, click here.