2016 began with a sharp spike in volatility with investors concerned the bull cycle could be over. Now is more than ever a great time to consider value stocks to remove risk in your stock portfolios. I have been cautious for over a year now and have a 12-month period to show results versus my two benchmarks, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Since last March, the Value Portfolio has outperformed VTI by 15.4% and NOBL by 9.5%. Click here to see the March 2016 picks for value stocks in the Value Portfolio.
Category Archives: S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats
Hey Black Friday shoppers, are you looking for dividend stocks that scream value? The Dividend Champions rankings are updated for November 2015. While it is not quite the end of 2015, I provide an update to the Value Portfolio’s quantitative outperformance since March (might be an understatement).
The Dividend Champions, created and maintained by David Fish is a list of dividend stocks that meet the same difficult criteria as the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats -25+ years of consecutive dividend payments- but includes stocks outside of the S&P 500. In all, there are currently 105 dividend stocks on the list. I apply a fundamental value ranking method using my econometric model fitted using the dividend aristocrats from 1992-2008. For the full article, click here.
Due to the interest in my latest article on the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (Finding Value in the Dividends Aristocrats List) and the discussion about backtesting, I thought I would share the empirical model I developed a few years back for forecasting total returns for The Value Portfolio (the 5 most undervalued stocks in the index). To outline the importance of value, I also created a portfolio of the 5 most expensive – The Underperform Portfolio. The results from 12 quarterly periods compared to the benchmark Dividend Aristocrats index outside of the model fitting period are shown in the chart. The full model is provided in xls linked below.
Dividend investors: are you looking for a stock to invest in? I assume you have heard about the S&P 500 Aristocrats list of companies that have raised their dividend every consecutive year for at least the past 25 years. I took a look at which companies on this exclusive list of 54 offers the best relative value. Check it out.